FAIRMONT — (Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series about voting and party trends in West Virginia in anticipation of the 2012 presidential election. This week is an analysis of the past two decades and five presidential races and how West Virginia’s electoral votes have swung. Next week will be an analysis of the state’s political affiliation.)



The state of West Virginia has five electoral votes. Just five out of 538 — less than 1 percent of the votes nationwide that will elect the next president of the United States come November.

But, as close elections go, we all know that five votes can make or break an election. In a close election, five votes can define a state as a “battleground” state — even a “swing” state. And though Democrats hold more than 70 percent of the elected positions in the state — from governor down to local county races — and registered Democrats versus Republicans are still 2 to 1, West Virginia is a state that swings.

Since statehood was official in 1863, West Virginia’s popular vote has given its electoral votes to the Democratic presidential candidate 20 times. The GOP candidate has earned it 17 times. Mostly “Blue” — or Democratic — since 1932

and the landslide election of New York Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt, the state was a Democratic stronghold until the 1956 election. Dwight D. Eisenhower won all but seven states in his re-election bid. But then the next cycle, the 1960 presidential election when John F. Kennedy faced Richard M. Nixon, West Virginia’s then-eight electoral votes went to the young Democrat senator from Massachusetts who courted the Mountain State during the campaign.

In 1972, West Virginia voted Republican again, joining every state in the union except Massachusetts that voted to re-elect Nixon.

Following a similar pattern, while a majority of West Virginian voters supported Jimmy Carter’s re-election against GOP contender Ronald Reagan in 1980, the state gave its support to the incumbent Reagan in 1984 over Walter Mondale, who only earned the electoral votes from his home state of Minnesota.

In seven out of the past 10 presidential elections, the state’s majority of voters have supported the overall winning candidate. In the past 10 elections, West Virginia has been “Red” five times and “Blue” five times.

That’s almost the definition of a “swing” state.

But with the weeks and months ticking down to the Nov. 6 election, which pits incumbent President Barack Obama versus GOP challenger Mitt Romney, there’s little chance that the state will swing away from Red, where it has hovered since 2000.

The most recent polling, from late April conducted by R.L. Repass for the Charleston Daily Mail, shows Romney with a 17-point advantage over Obama with likely voters. The results of the May primary election had a Texas federal inmate earning more than 40 percent of the Democratic vote over the incumbent president. And then there are the nonvotes — 25,000 Democrats failed to even vote in the presidential primary. The federal inmate, Keith Russell Judd, also won 10 of the state’s 55 counties.

Perhaps too close to call, with daily tracking polls putting both candidates in the high 40s. But perhaps West Virginia has already been “called” for Romney.

A conservative trend? A case of the state voting for (or against) the candidate on key issues?

First, a look at the past five presidential elections and how the nation and West Virginia voted.



1992 Presidential election

President George H.W. Bush vs. Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton

(Later independent candidate Ross Perot)

Bush didn’t appear to be the candidate anyone could beat. Following the swift in-and-out troop action in the Gulf War, his presidential approval rating was at one point in 1991 89 percent. That meant that high-profile Democrat candidates were reluctant to throw their hats in the ring to face such a popular incumbent president.

A relatively unknown Democratic leader — Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton — took the party’s nomination, promising a “new covenant” during his DNC acceptance speech, one that would reduce the gap between the rich and the poor created during the Reagan/Bush administrations.

Because the nation was facing a recession, those words resounded with the voters in America. Though it became a “character” race, with accusations of Clinton’s infidelity, marijuana smoking and draft dodging, an ABC News/Money Poll showed that what voters really cared about was the economy. In exit polls, 75 percent of voters said the economy was in either “Fairly Bad” or “Very Bad” shape, and an empty 1988 Bush campaign promise of “Read my lips ... no new taxes” appeared to be stuck in the craw of voters. Granted, there were no “new” taxes, but the 1990 budget agreement included an agreement to raise taxes in different areas to help the national economy.

The results of the popular vote:

National:

Clinton, 43 percent

Bush, 37.5 percent

Perot, 18.9 percent

West Virginia:

Clinton, 48.41 percent

Bush: 35.39 percent

Perot: 15.91 percent



1996 Presidential election

President Bill Clinton vs. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, R-Kan.

(Also independent candidate Ross Perot, who received a little more than 8 percent of the popular vote)

The Republican party was riding high from the 1994 midterm elections, when for the first time in 40 years a majority of House members was given to the GOP and for the first time in eight years the U.S. Senate. There was also the issue of the 1995 budget, when Clinton failed to approve a budget presented by Congress, which caused a temporary shutdown or slowdown of federal services.

After clinching the GOP nomination, Dole took on the popular incumbent president, vowing a major income tax rate reduction. But Clinton warned that Dole would slash social programs, like Medicare and Social Security.

The 1996 presidential election also marked the last time a majority of West Virginia’s voters would vote for a Democratic candidate in the general election. That is also the case for Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky and Missouri.

The results of the popular vote:

National:

Clinton, 49.2 percent

Dole, 40.7 percent

Perot, 8.4 percent

West Virginia:

Clinton, 51.51 percent

Dole: 36.76 percent

Perot: 11.26 percent



2000 Presidential election

Texas Gov. George W. Bush vs. Vice President Al Gore

Thought it was an election with no incumbents, both candidates probably paid for the “sins” of the presidents before them. After all, George W. was the son of the former vice president under Reagan and the one-term President George H.W. Bush. And Gore had to battle skeletons in Clinton’s closet after a sex scandal and an impeachment — many say he did so by avoiding the topic altogether.

Neck-and-neck is one way to describe the end of the campaign trail. Photo finish might be the way to describe the end of it. Too close to call. Or maybe too complicated. For the fourth time in the history of the United States, Bush did not win the nation’s popular vote, but won the electoral vote.

And the 25 votes in Florida gave him that victory. Tha nation held its collective breath as hanging or pregnant chads were analyzed within voting centers in the Sunshine State, and then again as the U.S. Supreme Court analyzed Gore’s challenge to the election and recount.

Bush took Florida’s electoral votes — and the presidency.

The results of the popular vote:

National:

Bush, 47.9 percent

Gore, 48.4 percent

West Virginia:

Bush, 51.92 percent

Gore: 45.59 percent



2004 Presidential election

President George W. Bush vs. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

After eight months in office, Bush was forced into becoming a “wartime” president, as a terrorist plot killed more than 3,000 Americans in targeted attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C., on Sept. 11, 2001. At that point, Bush, like his father before him, had a presidential approval rating of nearly 90 percent following the attacks.

WMD — or weapons of mass destruction — then became the buzz word for the 2004 campaign. The U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, claiming stockpiles of weapons were a threat to security. Though the U.S. did not have the world’s support, the Iraq War began in March 2003, with Bush claiming “mission accomplished” by May. However, the lingering reconstruction and attempts to establish democracy in the nation and the increasing casualty rates of U.S. soldiers meant loss of support for the war. That was coupled with the fact that no stockpile of WMD, only evidence of previous storage, was ever found.

Kerry came under attack by third-party groups.

The Iraq War, the economy and jobs, and health care were major concerns during the campaign. The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth claimed that Kerry exaggerated war crimes committed in Vietnam, misrepresented his own service during the war and challenged each of the medals Kerry earned from the U.S. Navy during his service. Many say the 527 group — a tax-exempt group “created primarily to influence the selection, nomination, election, appointment or defeat of candidates to federal, state or local public office” — was, in fact, responsible for Kerry’s defeat.

The results of the popular vote:

National:

Bush, 50.7 percent

Kerry, 48.3 percent

West Virginia:

Bush, 56.06 percent

Kerry: 43.20 percent



2008 Presidential election

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., vs. U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

For the first time since 1952, neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president was running for office, so voters were left to choose between two relatively unknown senators. Obama had a successful “grassroots” campaign through the Internet, social media and text messaging. His campaign not only set fundraising records, but shattered records for numbers of small, individual donations.

This may have been the “Change” versus the “Experience” election, with Obama underscoring the fact that Washington, D.C., needed a change, and McCain would mean “more of the same,” and McCain relying on years of service and the young Illinois senator’s inexperience as part of his platform. Who was more effective in that claim? A pre-election poll found that voters were more concerned with McCain’s tie to the Bush administration — Bush had an approval rating that tanked at 30 percent by that point — than they were about Obama’s inexperience.

By late summer, sharp economists were predicting an economic downturn, and by fall, all signs were pointing toward a possible recession that would be the worst and longest-lasting since the Great Depression of the 1930s. McCain took a hit in the polls as economic conditions worsened, as many pundits portrayed him as out of touch with the working American family.

Obama was the first black man to win a major party’s nomination as well as the office of president.

The results of the popular vote:

National:

Obama, 52.9 percent

McCain, 49.7 percent

West Virginia:

Obama, 42.59 percent

McCain: 55.71 percent



Andrew Sabak, chair of the county’s Republican party and a member of the state’s Republican committee, says like all things, presidential elections are cyclical. West Virginians typically vote in incumbents, Sabak explained, except when they won’t — as predicted in the 2012 election. But nationwide, Sabak says there appears to be a 16-year cycle with few exceptions when it comes to party leadership in the highest office.

“Suppose someone gets elected, you could make the case that it takes years for things to take effect,” he explained. “They need anther term, pressure is up, the momentum of programs increases, it takes over a year to get cabinet officers approved. It’s like, ‘It’s not really fair to un-elect me.’ And the American people, to their credit, will give them a chance.”

But then it swings.

“Having had that opportunity — America gave this party that chance — they try the other way,” he said. “Our sense of fairness has been tapped out and then we can reset.”

There are exceptions that Sabak will point out. Like this year, he predicts.

“I don’t anticipate it holding for Obama,” he said.

Sabak says he sees a lot of similarities between 1980 and 2012. There wasn’t a reason to expect Jimmy Carter would lose to California Gov. Ronald Reagan. Except there were. Sabak described Carter’s leadership as “weak and ineffectual” and said he portrayed none of the strength of his predecessor, Lyndon Johnson. Carter was seen as weak on foreign policy after a failed rescue attempt of the embassy staff in Iran and failure to deal with issues in Panama, Sabak said, and his worldwide appearance of weakness made him lose the respect of the nation.

In comes Reagan, Sabak described, as “so strong, such a burst of enthusiasm. He was extremely strong in principles, and a professional communicator.”

The unhappy American voters supported Reagan, and then did so overwhelmingly again in his 1984 re-election. His vice president, George H.W. Bush, was given the chance to do the same by voters, and his foreign policy strength was without question following the Gulf War. But the economy issue took the wind out of his sails, and that “sense of fairness” Sabak talks about was yet again tapped out, paving the way for Bill Clinton to take the popular vote in 1992.



o o o o o o



West Virginia loved Clinton, Marion County Democratic chairwoman and state party vice chairwoman Belinda Biafore said.

“I think it’s because Clinton was a small-town guy, a governor to a small state similar to West Virginia,” Biafore explained. “He could relate to the people of West Virginia, coming up the hard way, raised by a single mother. He had a charismatic personality, the kind that makes you feel like you’re someone. And he had a good message going on and he stuck to it — improving the economy and creating jobs, and caring for the young to the old.”

And he remained popular, through controversy and scandals. West Virginia still related to him and supported him in his re-election bid.

And Biafore said that may have been Al Gore’s downfall in the Mountain State during the 2000 election. Gore distanced himself from Clinton and his skeletons when he should have had the president stumping for him in West Virginia, she explained. And Gore lost the state because he ignored it.

Sabak recalls Bush volunteers giving up vacations and camping out in West Virginia, reaching each and every voter they could to rally support. Biafore recalls pleading with the national party in 1996 to bring Gore to the state to connect with voters and just one campaign stop in Huntington.

Both agree West Virginia was or could have been that swing state that mattered. Those five electoral votes made the difference.

“If Al Gore would have carried West Virginia, it wouldn’t have mattered how many chads were hanging in Florida,” Biafore said.

And while Sabak said there was a strong organization of Bush volunteers state by state, county by county, precinct by precinct, Biafore said that kind of presence just wasn’t there for Gore in West Virginia.

“We had no troops,” she said. “We weren’t getting money to hire field reps. We were winging it.”

Maybe learning from the mistakes of 2000, the John Kerry campaign paid more attention to West Virginia, with major campaign stops in Beckley, Huntington and Wheeling. But Biafore looks at that election cycle as the start of the 527 group’s “brainwashing” voters with claims of unpatriotic behavior — an issue always very important to West Virginians. Biafore said West Virginia was studied and trends were examined. “God, guns and gays” were issues the voters cared about, so smear advertising focused on that, she explained.

“Even though those ads weren’t true, special groups were forming — ‘brainwashing’ is what I call it,” Biafore said. “People from out of state were pouring millions into West Virgina because they knew they could make a difference.”

And that difference was evident at the polls, as Kerry took a 13-point loss in West Virginia.

The 2008 presidential election was another case of the candidates’ inability to relate to West Virginian voters, Biafore said. Obama had a grassroots campaign, but the platform wasn’t door-to-door and precinct-by-precinct that West Virginian voters relate to, she explained. It was a technology blitz, so the voters of the state didn’t relate to the senator from Chicago.

“We like that grassroots, hometown, one-on-one southern-style politics,” she explained. “He had all the right words ... but when people don’t see you and you don’t pay attention ... one of my biggest fears was that they wouldn’t understand the political end of it.”

And perhaps West Virginia still remains a misunderstanding for Obama’s campaign. Since being elected, he’s been to the state only twice — to attend the memorial service for the 29 miners killed in the Upper Big Branch mine explosion, and to attend Sen. Robert C. Byrd’s funeral, both in 2010. No stops featuring Michelle Obama and their daughters. No explanations of his energy policy to coal-mining communities. No communication.



o o o o o o



There’s a question mark about how the 2012 election will turn out. At any moment in time, an issue may pop up that determines the end vote.

That issue was the economy in the 2008 election, which took over the minds of voters just weeks before they hit the polls.

That issue in West Virginia since the 2008 election has been energy in general and coal in particular.

Larry Puccio, chairman of the state’s Democrat Party, says he doesn’t believe West Virginia is going to be considered a “battleground” state for the 2012 presidential election.

“The people have shared their concern with President Obama with his stance on energy and coal,” Puccio said. “I believe that many West Virginians have shown their frustrations when it comes to energy and coal, which has allowed the president to have hurdles and obstacles in the state of West Virginia to overcome.”

That may have been reflected in the fact that the 10 counties where the popular vote went to a federal inmate versus an incumbent president were all traditional coal-producing counties. Environmental Protection Agency actions to delay permitting for surface mines, plus the fact that coal isn’t part of the current administration’s long-term energy plan for the nation, may be stumbling blocks as opposed to obstacles for Obama in West Virginia.

But Puccio says it isn’t a conservative trend in the state that’s made the popular vote swing Red in the past three elections — it’s the candidates themselves.

“The candidate (West Virginia) voters feel will be the best for West Virginia, they will go out and vote for them,” he explained.

He points to that same R.L. Repass Poll from late April, prior to the state’s primary election. When asked if the general election were held that day, 54 percent said they would vote for Romney, 37 percent said Obama and 10 percent were left undecided.

“I never try to hide from fact who is popular and who is unpopular,” Puccio said. “The numbers speak for themselves.”

But countering a “more conservative” claim, Puccio points out that conservatives in statewide elections fared worse than Obama. Given the same question, 74 percent said they would vote for Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, 22 percent for his challenger John Raese and 4 percent undecided; 60 percent said they would vote for incumbent Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, 32 percent for GOP challenger Bill Maloney and 8 percent undecided.

“Stop and think about it. It’s just so easy,” Puccio said. “These two individuals appear to be less popular than Barack Obama. If it’s just about being conservative, the truth of the matter is those two candidates claim to be conservative.

“I think it’s about the candidate allowing the public to be comfortable that they will do the best for this state and this country, and that (poll) shows it more than ever.”

Email Misty Poe at mpoe@timeswv.com or follower her on Twitter @MistyPoeTWV.