Are you making a list? Checking it twice?
You might be checking it three times this year ... can’t overlook any bad behavior this year. Times are tight.
And you know it’s bad when Wal-Mart has got it rough. Sure, the company announced a third-quarter profit late last week. But it came at a cost. The megastore chain slashed its inventory in 2009 by nearly 7 percent to crunch the numbers. And same-store sales have been on the decline, and the holiday forecast isn’t looking much better.
Could be that consumer confidence is down. On the same day that Wal-Mart reported a predicted decline in same-store sales again for the fourth quarter, the University of Michigan reported that the consumer confidence index dropped in October to 70.6, down from 73.5 in September.
Frightening numbers, considering that retailers make anywhere from 40 to 50 percent of their profits while shoppers are stuffing stockings and humming along with Christmas carols piped over loudspeakers.
Black Friday could be Bleak Friday in 2009.
The National Retail Federation says that this year’s sales will fall 1 percent to $437.6 billion. Considering that over the past decade, the average growth has been 3.39 percent, $4 billion less under Christmas trees across the country goes to show how shoppers are feeling this year.
Of course, there’s not going to be a definite answer to the way this Christmas shopping season shakes out until people are standing in line to return that reindeer sweater Grandma sent. But in advance of singing along with “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” while sorting through leisure suits on sale, we thought we’d ask our readers to give their own holiday shopping forecast online in our poll question, which can be found each week at www.timeswv.com.
Last week, we asked our readers, “Considering the economy, when it comes to Christmas shopping how much do you think you will spend this year compared to last year?”
Very few of our readers seem to be making longer, more elaborate lists this year. Only 3.92 percent of our readers said they expected to spend more because “things are looking all the merrier.”
Quite a few more, or 32.35 percent, said they’d be spending about the same. And that makes sense. Last year, more were cautious because we were heading straight into the worst of an economic storm. This year? Could be those storm clouds in the rear-view mirror mean we’re through the worst ... or, at worst, in the eye of the storm. Cautious optimism ... or cautious pessimism.
But the majority of those who took our online poll, or 63.73 percent, said they plan to spend less this year because they “can’t even afford the coal for stockings.” Well, they have a point. Energy prices and demand are up, which is one of the reasons this state has been sheltered from the worst of the recession. And I guess that’s good news for the little boys and girls on the Naughty List.
This might very well be the year that people are more likely to stop and focus on the meaning of the holiday season than to shop until they drop.
This week, let’s talk about whether the spouses of political candidates should have to disclose their business interests.
Log on. Vote. E-mail me.
Misty Poe
Managing Editor
mpoe@timeswv.com
