By Jessica Borders
Times West Virginian
FAIRMONT —
While the recession has helped keep people in West Virginia, the state population is expected to drop in the future.
The West Virginia University College of Business and Economics’ Bureau of Business and Economic Research recently published the 2010 West Virginia Population Projection, which looks at age group and sex and includes data for individual counties. Dr. Christiadi, demographer at the BBER, is the author of the study, which was released at the end of August.
Dr. Tom Witt, director of the BBER, explained that the demographics program is a fairly new program within the bureau. After a national search, the BBER hired Christiadi, who is the only demographer in the state of West Virginia. His role is to examine and project the population trends and provide demographic studies that allow people at the state and local levels to better understand the characteristics of the population.
“We try to update the population projection each year based on new information that we receive on the demographic trends that we see in the West Virginia economy,” Witt said. “This is part of our mission and our commitment to provide quality economic and demographic information for public policymakers and the general public so better decisions can be made for West Virginia’s future.”
As the 2010 Census results start being released next year and in subsequent years, Christiadi will do more in-depth studies of those statistics and help the public see the demographic challenges that exist in West Virginia, Witt said.
He said the state has one of the oldest average age populations in the country and also lacks younger adults. West Virginia needs to work to attract out-of-state students and show them the economic opportunities here. Some long-term structural challenges in the economy will reduce the ability of the population to grow in the state.
In addition to age, Christiadi also looks at other dimensions, such as sex, race, the distribution of that population around the state, and county projections. While some counties in West Virginia are poised for continued population growth, others will experience declines, Witt said.
Gov. Joe Manchin designated the BBER as the West Virginia representative for the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, he said. The BBER provides the U.S. Census Bureau with some of the basic information it uses in developing projections.
Christiadi explained that for the 2010 West Virginia Population Projection, he used the inter-regional cohort component model to project the population based on migration rates, birth rates and death rates, which are components of population growth. He compiled data from different sources to come up with those rates and then applied them to the current population to make a forecast for future years.
Christiadi said he has been doing forecasts for several years, and it’s a process that is understood more with experience. The more that an individual makes projections, the more easily they can see what makes sense and what doesn’t.
Forecasting doesn’t just involve applying a formula, he said.
“There are certain times when you will eventually need to make some judgements on what could happen in the future,” Christiadi said. “It is not just simply mathematics.”
He said the findings from his most recent study are not surprising for the state.
“We already know that West Virginia is one of the oldest states in the nation and that tends to make population growth in the state slower, and that is the case,” Christiadi said.
He found that in recent years the state’s population growth has actually been a bit higher than average and there has been positive growth. Since 2006, the state has had a population growth rate of 0.2 percent per year.
The data shows that the main component that drove the population was migration. While out-migration from West Virginia has been declining, in-migration into the state has been increasing in the last few years, Christiadi said.
Fluctuations in migration are related to recession. When the economy is suffering, the out-migration rate tends to decrease and more people return home, he said.
“During the most recent recessions, the out-migration from West Virginia actually declined quite significantly, so that means this event keeps people ... in West Virginia,” he said.
Christiadi said the state has experienced an increasing in-migration because there are real economic factors that attract people to West Virginia. Even when the state lost population in the early 2000s, it was still able to attract individuals. But this time, not many people are moving out of the state.
“We gain population from migration, and the difference between births and deaths is very little,” he said. “I expect to see sort of the same rate of growth in the next few years until the economy gets better.”
After the economy recovers, Christiadi predicts that the out-migration rate will rise back up. More people will start moving out of the state, and the same amount will be moving in. But as more people leave, the gain from migration will become less and less and West Virginia will eventually see some population loss after 2030.
Also, West Virginia will have a flux of people beginning to retire within the next 20 years as the baby boomers age, he said. This means an increase in the share of the older population. The age group of persons 65 and older is projected to rise by 55.4 percent from 2000 to 2030, going from 15.3 percent of the population to 23 percent.
With more old people, who have a higher death rate, the state will see more residents passing away in the following years, Christiadi said.
“Eventually you will see significant difference from deaths and births," he said. “When the number of deaths exceed the number of births, we reduce population.”
Christiadi said West Virginia has a lower birth rate compared to the nation, which indicates that the number of babies born per woman is lower in West Virginia than in the country. From 2000 to 2030, the share of people 25 and younger is expected to decline by 7.7 percent, moving from 31.8 percent of the population to 28.4 percent.
The state also has a higher death rate, meaning the number of deaths per 1,000 people is higher than in the nation. These factors help explain what will happen in the future, when West Virginia will have fewer young people and more old people, he said.
The United States as a whole will experience the same kind of wave of acceleration in the population aging, but will gain more people in terms of growth, Christiadi said.
On average, the older generation in the nation will survive longer than those in the state, he said. Although the nation will see a higher growth of old people compared to West Virginia in the next two decades, the country will also experience an increase in young people.
West Virginia will have fewer old people who stay alive and won’t gain young people, Christiadi said.
“If you average out, we will still end up having more old people than the nation,” he said. “We will remain one of the oldest states in the nation.”
The population estimates for Marion County were 56,598 for July 1, 2000, and 56,779 for 2010. The numbers are projected to reach 58,411 in 2020 and 58,940 in 2030.
For July of this year, 5,167 people ages 20 to 24 were estimated in Marion County, and this made up the largest age group. The next biggest segments of the population were 50 to 54 year olds, with 4,164 individuals; 15 to 19 year olds, with 4,096; and 55 to 59 year olds, with 4,018. The least populated groups were people 85 years and older, with 1,583 persons; ages 80 to 84, with 1,681; and ages 75 to 79, with 1,710.
For July 2030, people ages 40 to 44 are projected to make up the biggest age group in Marion County, with 5,106. The next largest segments of the population will be 35 to 39 year olds, with 4,037 individuals; 15 to 19 year olds, with 3,750; and 55 to 59 year olds, with 3,627. The least populated groups will be people 85 years and older, with 1,649 persons; ages 80 to 84, with 2,019; and ages 75 to 79, with 2,884.
The BBER’s demographics website can be found at www.be.wvu.edu/demographics.
E-mail Jessica Borders at jborders@timeswv.com.
